Dueling Conspiracy Theories

Something happened during the last election. Depending on what news outlets you follow, you probably believe either that candidate Donald Trump colluded with the Russian government, sabotaging the campaign of Hillary Clinton, or that the DNC ordered the assassination of Seth Rich. You may not believe either accusation, and frankly there is no solid proof that either is true. You probably don’t believe both to be true, which is unlikely but still possible, because your media outlets have been presenting these as either-or conspiracy theories.

Seth Rich worked for the Democratic National Committee as a Voter Expansion Data Director. Some people claim he secretly favored Bernie Sanders instead of Hillary Clinton.

On 10 July 2016, at about 4 AM, Rich was walking home from a bar in the Bloomingdale neighborhood of Washington, DC NW. (I lived in and around DC until 1990, and never heard of that neighborhood, but in general NorthWest DC had become a place where affluent young people wanted to live.) Police were alerted to gunfire at 4:20 AM, and found Rich bruised and shot twice in the back. His girlfriend told reporters:

“There had been a struggle. His hands were bruised, his knees are bruised, his face is bruised, and yet he had two shots to his back, and yet they never took anything… They didn’t finish robbing him, they just took his life.”

Rich still had his wallet, watch, phone and was wearing a $2,000 necklace. There had been twenty robberies in the area, and police later labeled the killing a “botched robbery,” but it may actually have been a botched amateur assassination, since nothing was taken and he was still conscious when found. He died at hospital.

Two or three days later, WikiLeaks published nearly 20,000 Democratic National Committee emails. John Podesta and the DNC claimed those emails were obtained by Russian hackers, which given the numbers of hackers from Russia, is plausible. The DNC expanded that claim to involve the Trump campaign, and there is currently a House Intelligence Committee investigation into whether there was any collusion between Trump or his campaign, and the Russian government.

Julian Assange refused to confirm or deny that Rich had leaked the emails, but on August 11th, Wikileaks offered a $20,000 reward for information leading to Rich’s killer.

Former DC policeman Rod Wheeler, working indirectly for Rich’s family claims that he was told by a reliable FBI agent that Rich’s laptop proved that he had sent the emails to Gavin McFayden, a mentor of Assange and an official of Wikileaks, who has since died of lung cancer. Wheeler has recently walked back that claim.

Today, legions of podcasters are waiting for Kim Dotcom to fulfill his promise to prove that Seth Rich leaked those emails to Wikileaks. Dotcom claims he was involved, too.

But no matter what Dotcom does or doesn’t reveal, the full force of the Deep State will still be behind the Russian hacking theory, which seems to be the best means of attacking a President that recklessly announced his hostility to the establishment during his inaugural address.

Made to be Ruled

Is not this simpler? Is this not your natural state? It’s the unspoken truth of humanity, that you crave subjugation. The bright lure of freedom diminishes your life’s joy in a mad scramble for power, for identity. You were made to be ruled. In the end, you will always kneel.

The big news in the United States has been the firing of FBI Director James Comey by President Donald Trump. At first Trump attributed his dismissal to Comey’s handling of the investigation into Hillary Clinton, but no one (except maybe FiveThirtyEight.com) was buying that explanation. After a day or two of differing stories from various members of the White House staff, it became clear that Trump had consulted very few of them before the announcement. Even Steve Bannon found out via a news broadcast.

Soon it was asserted that Director Comey had recently requested more funding and resources for the FBI’s investigation of ties between the Trump campaign and Russia. And just before the weekend, NBC’s Lester Holt interviewed Trump, who said that he had actually fired Comey because:

“And in fact, when I decided to just do it, I said to myself — I said, you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made-up story. It’s an excuse by the Democrats for having lost an election that they should’ve won.”

To the propaganda arm of the Deep State, meaning most of the mainstream media, Comey’s firing and Trump’s admission meant that there was definitely something to the allegations that have persisted since the election. In this youtube video, a power panel of the supposedly independent The Young Turks (Ben Mankiewicz, Cenk Uygur, Alonzo Bodden, John Iadarola) was predicting Trump’s imminent perpwalk: Trump Administration ADMITS Comey Was Fired To Kill Russia Investigation

But we’ve heard news of Trump’s imminent demise over and over. In, Has The Trump/Russia Conspiracy Been Proven True? Michael Tracy (also of The Young Turks) makes the case that Trump’s interference does not prove collusion, but may well constitute obstruction of justice. (It’s not the crime, it’s the cover-up.)

While Cenk Uygur dismisses Trump as a bumbling man-child, and joked that Michael Tracy was wearing blinders on this issue, I think Tracy, and reporters at The Intercept are correct to wait for solid evidence. It seems clear to me that the resistance has been looking for an easy way to rid themselves of this populist president, and is more than willing to make up the facts as they go along.

Does that mean I support Trump. No. But I was watching some youtubes from a podcast called Trending locally and from a presentation called, Globalization and the Backlash of Populism. In the podcast, Mark Blyth discussed the French Election and Comey ; in the Q&A after the Backlash presentation, he discussed the situation before the election.

Blyth pointed out that Populism is by definition, “popular” and probably isn’t going away. Marine Le Pen, he observed, did get one-third of votes cast, and she or someone in her family will run again next time. The resistance, he noted, has to offer more than just rickety coalitions against populist candidates. They have to offer workable alternative solutions.

I’m not sure that Progressives and Liberals even qualify as a rickety coalition nowadays. There are at least three broad camps, but not much solid ground in any of them. The first is the establishment, neoliberal Democrats, who are hoping that Trump’s failures will propel their party to being relevant again without changing a thing. Seriously, not a thing. A few days ago the Washington Post published an opinion letter claiming that Hillary Clinton would obviously be the strongest candidate in 2020. As they did during the campaign, they are trying to leverage the popularity of Bernie Sanders without really adopting any of his campaign platform. Sanders is touring the country carefully shepherded by new DNC chairman Tom Perez. Sanders has gotten so much applause and Perez so little that Perez has taken to introducing Sanders at the beginning of his vague speeches.

There are two challenger groups, Brand New Congress and Justice Democrats, that appear to be working together to primary and replace establishment Dems with more progressive alternatives that eschew PAC money and large donors. Cenk Uygur and much of the Young Turks team are promoting Justice Democrats. California Congressman Ro Khanna has officially joined them, and Paula Swearengin, an environmental activist and a real coal miner’s daughter, has joined JD to take on Joe Manchin in the WV primary.

But there groups for whom some progressives Democrats just aren’t progressive enough. One is of course, the Green Party. Another is the People’s Party, which hopes to lure Senator Sanders into being their candidate. And in an online battle of podcasts, a number of uber-progressive journos have attacked both Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna. Some consider Sanders too much of a hawk; others are put off by his failure to address the vote-rigging reported by Greg Palast. Khanna is unsuitable because his campaign manager once wrote a memo to John Podesta offering a deal for Hillary Clinton’s endorsement, and more recently has received a lot of $2,700 dollar donations from Silicon Valley types instead of smaller donations from regular people.

It is difficult to know where the search for purity leads, though, because in my recollection, every revolutionary that survives either becomes establishment themselves, or a murderous despot.

Weird Tennis Weekend

It is a bizarre time for tennis.

A few weeks ago, the International Tennis Federation (ITF) announced a new strategy to reduce the total number of professional tour players. I’m not sure if any sport is as Byzantine as tennis, but essentially there are the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) which runs the elite men’s tour, the Women’s Tennis Association (WTA) which runs the elite women’s tour and the ITF, which runs a lot of things, like the Davis Cup, Federation Cup, Hopman Cup, Olympic tennis and circuits of smaller professional, junior, senior, wheelchair and even beach tennis tournaments. The ITF “partners” with the ATP and WTA, and “sanctions” each of the four majors – which are otherwise run independently – and manages the ranking system.

The ITF now plans to reduce the number of professional players from around 14,000 to 1,500 – 750 men and 750 women. Their research indicates that half of the current players don’t actually earn any prize money on the tour, and that many more don’t actually earn a living, relying on parental or sponsor support. They also claim that all these journeymen players make it difficult for talented juniors to advance to the elite tours.

I watched one set of the ATP Masters 1000 tournament in Monte Carlo last weekend. I usually prefer WTA matches, but TennisTV can’t broadcast those anymore. The semifinal match between Rafael Nadal and David Goffin seemed promising. Goffin was having the best week of his career, bumping off Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals. But Nadal is a god on clay, and had already won Monte Carlo nine times. They had never played each other before.

Goffin broke early. He was playing well and was holding serve fairly easily until he served at 3-2. Nadal finally seemed to put some return pressure on Goffin, and in a long game, earned but lost a break point. Then it appeared that Nadal had hit wide on a Goffin game point. Nadal began walking to the service line, but the chair umpire climbed down, circled a mark in the clay and signaled that the point should be replayed. Looking at a replay, the announcers were certain the ball was out by, “a mile.” Goffin held his head in disbelief, but to no avail. The game went back and forth for fifteen minutes with each player holding and losing game points until Goffin hit a ball into the net. 3-All.

Nadal held easily for 4-3, then Goffin rather meekly lost serve again, and with Nadal leading 5-3 I decided to watch something else. I read that Nadal won 6-3, 6-1. Nadal could certainly have come back to win without that bad call, but the match had changed from compelling to a cakewalk.

In Federation Cup action, Great Britain was visiting Romania, whose captain is the talented but tasteless Ilie Nastase:

At a news conference on Saturday to preview the matches in Constanta, Romania’s captain was heard to say of [Serena] Williams’ baby, due in the fall: “Let’s see what color it has. Chocolate with milk?”

On the first day, a win by Simona Halep had Romania 1-0 against Great Britain. In the second match, Brit Johanna Konta, who has been hot lately, was leading Sorana Cirstea 6-2, 1-2. But when captain Anne Keothavong complained about Nastase’s audible comments, he began verbally abusing the chair umpire, Keothavong and Konta from the sideline. Nastase was escorted out, but Konta was rattled and lost the next game. She asked for a time out, then ran out the next five games to tie the rubber at 1-1.

ESPN reported that Nastase had been creepy before the matches:

The 70-year-old, who had a reputation as a playboy during and after his playing career, had previously made Keothavong feel uncomfortable with a number of inappropriate remarks earlier in the week.

Having asked for her room number during the event’s official dinner on Thursday, Nastase then repeated the request when the captains posed together for photographs following Friday’s draw, and he put his arm tightly around Keothavong’s shoulder. When both teams were called back together, Nastase said to Keothavong, who is married and 18 weeks pregnant with her second child: “We keep being attracted.”

Romania went on to win both subsequent singles matches, but Nastase is now suspended by the ITF. Cirstea called Konta weak for needing the time out, and Halep claimed that Nastase is always joking, but a Romanian official took the cake by noting that Nastase wasn’t a racist because he is friends with Yannick Noah.

Overbooking 101

I’ve read a few outraged articles about United Airlines vs Dr Dao. As he often does, James Pilant questions the business ethics involved. I consider air travel an environmental tragedy, and agree that people wearing police uniforms are entirely too ready to dish out force and violence, but I have been generally aware (one of my brothers has been bumped) that overbooking was a common practice driven by A – people missing or not showing up for flights, or taking earlier flights and B – the airlines wanting to maximize profit by having a passenger in every seat.

I read somewhere that without overbooking the average flight might be only about 83% full, but I have seen many more empty seats on Greyhound. I’ve taken the bus from Altoona to Harrisburg to Baltimore dozens of times, and unless it is a holiday weekend, I see anywhere from 50 to 90% of seats going empty. Airlines, though, were hit hard by the price-gouging competition that came with the 1978 Airline Deregulation Act, and more recently by unpredictable fuel costs. So they overbook. As I am in the middle of reading James Kwak’s Economism: Bad Economics and the Rise of Inequality, I was trying to figure out why, in a deregulated and free market, overbooking isn’t perfectly balanced by some other market factor like voucher payments.

On April 11th, Cadie Thompson at Business Insider explained, The frustrating reason airlines overbook flights, but quoted Vinay Bhaskara, “Usually, they won’t overbook first class because that could tend to make your most lucrative passengers very angry.”

Four days later Thompson amplified the justifications, Here’s why overbooking flights is actually a good thing:

“By overbooking it actually does help keep the fares down because the airlines are able to maximize the amount of revenue they are able to collect and generate as much profit as they can,” said Henry Harteveldt, president and travel industry analyst for Atmosphere Research Group, told Business Insider.

“But if they didn’t overbook it’s possible they may have to charge more,” he said.

Overbooking is also beneficial to consumers because it allows the more flexibility in their travel plans, Vinay Bhaskara, Airways senior business analyst, told to Business Insider.

“Frequently, the people who benefit the most from overbooking are the last few people to buy, The ones who are not able to make plans in advance,” Bhaskara said. “Often times those seats are available at the last minute are only available because that flight can be overbooked. The airline knows some people are going to be missing the flight.”

Ultimately, though, overbooking is done because airlines want to ensure that they are making the most money on every seat. So they use historical data to help them predict how many people will likely miss a flight on a certain route. And most of the time it works.

Bureau of Transportation Statistics indicate that in 2015 about one-tenth of a percent of passengers were denied boarding (bumped), and that roughly 90% of those were voluntary, meaning that they took the vouchers offered. Journalist Bob Sullivan notes that while the voluntary numbers are declining, the involuntary bumps remain fairly constant. He blames the vouchers:

Again, that means one thing: the voucher offers aren’t nearly good enough.

Let’s speculate about why that is.  I’ve heard from many readers today about the vouchers they get from airlines in this situation, and here’s the truth: Experienced fliers are wise to the game. They are saying no more often.  Vouchers aren’t all they are cracked up to be, and they certainly aren’t the same as cash.  They expire.  Sometimes their remaining value is surrendered (a $400 voucher gets a $300 flight and $100 disappears).  Most of all, the vouchers must be used on the airline that just did the bumping. Who wants to fly an airline that just kicked them off a plane!

And, like rebates, some of them are never used, giving the airlines a secret source of revenue.

Kwak’s central theme is that the free market only operates perfectly inside your Economics 101 class:

“… Because nobody is ever forced to make a trade (in theory, at least), a transaction only occurs if it makes both parties better off. … prices naturally adjust until supply equals demand. …”

Kwak notes that in the real world, there is, “a fundamental tension between efficiency and fairness,” which sometimes leads to price gouging, and now has led to a bloodied man being dragged off a passenger jetliner, and being vilified in the press for not going quietly.

Update 20170420, a popular article at The American Conservative quotes Fox, The Daily Mail and the Independent to paint Dao as a sharpie who instigated the whole mess, hoping for a lawsuit.

Don’t Be Evil

I recently posted about watching several youtube videos featuring Robert Palmer. The truth is, I’ve been watching a lot of online video in the last few months. After watching Democracy Now!, and The Young Turks, I usually find some youtube video. Last week I watched some old BBC documentaries like The Edwardians in Color, Mods and Rockers, and a university lecture 1177 BC: The Year Civilization Collapsed. There were a few ads throughout, but it wasn’t so bad.

Sometimes in the evening I pull up a karaoke to sing to my wife over skype. Then the ads get a lot longer, sometimes 90 to 150 seconds. During the ads, she tells me about essential oils, and stuff.

There are however youtube videos with no advertising. Really. I was watching Jimmy Dore, and he was complaining about being de-monetized for speaking truth to power, or something, and I thought, “Does he mean demonized?” but no. Many, many political youtube sites have been de-monetized – meaning that youtube – Google, really – has taken away their income by blocking advertising:

The cover story is that advertisers complained when they saw their ads on videos espousing ISIS or something. Business Insider’s Lara O’Reilly explains in, The real motivations behind the growing YouTube advertiser boycott:

By the second day of the London-based trade show, The Times reported that more than 250 brands — from L’Oreal, to McDonald’s, Audi, and HSBC — had suspended their campaigns from YouTube (and in some cases, Google’s display ad platform that serves ads to third-party websites) until Google could give them assurances that their ads would not appear next to videos containing hate speech, promoting terror organizations, or other obviously unsafe content for their brands to be associated with.

That’s the cover story, but it is interesting that Jimmy Dore, Secular Talk, and David Pakman, and presumably conservative youtubers suddenly have no advertisers and are unable to earn more than a few pennies a day. They do not espouse hate or terror, but do, however, offer an alternative to the prevailing mainstream narrative offered by corporately-owned media outlets. In fact some of their followers have tried to advertise specifically on their channels and have been refused.

So from now on, I’m skipping all the documentaries, music, karaoke, and other sponsored channels and going straight to the political channels – with no commercials. If they don’t want us to see it this badly, there must be something to it.

Classical Gas Attack

I wrote about the possibility of a false flag operation during the Ukraine situation, but had been holding off on the recent Syria gas attack.

A few sites, Yournewswire, Antimedia, ShadowProof and the like, went false flag immediately, as did The Sane Progressive. They also noted that two previous Sarin attacks attributed to Assad had been later shown to have been carried out by rebels. Senator Rand Paul pointed out on camera that we didn’t know who was behind the Syria attack, and was roundly criticized in the mainstream media. Many liberal bloggers, like Juan Cole, pointed out that the US had just killed innocent civilians in a drone strike, and had used tear gas on its own citizens at the DAPL protest, but these bloggers seemed to go along with the assumption that Assad was probably culpable.

A few outlets urged us to be cautious in assigning the blame to Assad. On The Young Turks, Cenk Uygur felt that the timing seemed suspicious, with Assad mostly having what he wanted and peace talks looming.

But from his office away from the office at Mar-a-Lago yesterday, President Trump ordered that the military fire over 50 (to confuse Russian defense systems) Tomahawk cruise missiles at the suspected Syrian airbase in retaliation. After the attack, Common Dreams put out, Without Proof or Cause or Consent, ‘Impetuous’ Trump Bombs Syria:

Though Trump claims there is “no dispute” that Assad was responsible for the horrific deaths earlier this week in the town of Khan Sheikhoun, he is widely regarded as a serial liar and someone whose own FBI and top intelligence officials have had to discredit recent public accusations he has made.

Common Dreams quoted Sam Sacks on Twitter:

Guest after guest is gushing. From MSNBC to CNN, Trump is receiving his best night of press so far. And all he had to do was start a war.

Many pundits observed that George W Bush rescued his deeply unpopular presidency by attacking Iraq after 9/11 (based on false data about weapons of mass destruction), and worried that the even more unpopular Trump might resort to the same tactic. Assuming that the Deep State wanted Hillary Clinton to initiate a proxy war in Syria, I would say that National Security Adviser McMaster’s edging out of Steve Bannon and our subsequent attack on Syria represent a clear victory for the neoconservative/neoliberal Deep State over the anti-interventionism expressed by Trump during his presidential campaign.

Updates, from the Jimmy Dore Show, on Youtube:

Evidence Suggests S-Y-R-I-A G-A-S ATTACK Is False Flag

Proof Gov & Media Lied About S-A-R-I-N G-A-S Attack

Nuclear Plant Builder in Chapter 11

As we debate climate change, someone always steps forward to claim that only some form of nuclear fission or fusion can keep the lights on. Nuclear power, they say, is safer and cleaner than burning fossil fuels.

But first, nuclear wastes have half-lives in the thousands of years. Second, nuclear power plants are so *not* profitable that only governments or utilities using public money can be induced to finance them.

Westinghouse Nuclear, owned by Toshiba, had tried to guarantee a fixed cost for four new projects, and is now going bankrupt as a result:

Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC, a U.S. company, and certain of its subsidiaries and affiliates, today filed voluntary petitions under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The Company is seeking to undertake a strategic restructuring as a result of certain financial and construction challenges in its U.S. AP1000® power plant projects.

… The DIP financing will fund Westinghouse’s core businesses of supporting operating plants, nuclear fuel and components manufacturing and engineering as well as decommissioning, decontamination, remediation and waste management as the company works to reorganize around these strong business units.

From the New York Times, Westinghouse Files for Bankruptcy, in Blow to Nuclear Power:

The filing comes as the company’s corporate parent, Toshiba of Japan, scrambles to stanch huge losses stemming from Westinghouse’s troubled nuclear construction projects in the American South. Now, the future of those projects, which once seemed to be on the leading edge of a renaissance for nuclear energy, is in doubt.

… The power companies — Scana Energy in South Carolina and a consortium in Georgia led by Georgia Power, a unit of Southern Company — would face the possibility of new contract terms, long lawsuits and absorbing losses that Toshiba and Westinghouse could not cover, analysts say. The cost estimates are already running $1 billion to $1.3 billion higher than originally expected, according to a recent report from Morgan Stanley, and could eventually exceed $8 billion over all.

… Using simplified structures and safety equipment, [AP1000] was intended to be easier and less expensive to install, operate and maintain. Its design also improves the ability to withstand earthquakes and plane crashes and is less vulnerable to a cutoff of electricity, which is what set off the triple meltdown at Fukushima.